Odds brexit
GDP would fall 5. London office prices would slump by a fifth over two to three years. No deal implies slamming the door on the article 50 divorce talks, which would make the prospect of a future FTA extremely remote.
The chaos that would ensue is difficult to exaggerate. See our full Brexit phrasebook. This may sound dramatic and the forecasts arrive covered in caveats.
There would be a big difference from in that the UK would alone in suffering a shock, aside from smaller knock-on effects elsewhere, mostly in the EU.
The reasoning is straightforward. Put another way, the UK is horribly ill-prepared for a no-deal Brexit.
In a no-deal outcome, you can ignore almost everything chancellor Philip Hammond said. She will accept a few technical compromises here and there, and let the negotiations drag out to the very end.
Unless the conservatives replace her this autumn, she will confront the EU with a choice of Chequers versus no-deal.
The UK sides believes, rightly in our view, that the EU is underestimating the probability of a no-deal Brexit. Short-term there will be a bit of pain.
Long-term, getting the hell out of a miserable marriage to 27 Nannycrats who all have to agree with everything or nothing gets done has to be a good thing.
The EU is an exit sandwich. First by the UK. Second by an eastern European country like Poland or Hungary. A long comment was just eaten by the Maven comment system They have completely misjudged the Brexit situation just like they completely misjudged the rush of migrants in UK should have a NO deal Brexit and refuse to pay the about 50 billion Euros EU claims they need to pay and instead UK needs to tell German taxpayers and French taxpayers to pay that 50 billion and Merkel and Macron will become even more unpopular than they already are.
UK can smooth the customs by giving factories and large companies their own custom officials and having local custom officials for middle-sized companies that go through all customs issues for middle-sized companies in certain city.
Small companies can quickly do their customs at the border since no ques with the above optimized customs plan.
There can be open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland with large companies and factories also doing customs through their dedicated customs officials and middle-sized companies doing customs with the customs officials in their city.
There will be some customs evasion but so what it will be small potatoes and will also work the other way around with Northern Ireland taking products to Ireland customs free so in the end NO reason to agree EU's insane dictats to keep the border free and open because it can be kept open and free even in a NO deal scenario.
UK also has much more generous welfare than France. France's actions and the situation at Calais which has been an ongoing nightmare for about 10 years now is one of the major reasons Brexit was voted for by the Brits.
Another reason Brits voted for Brexit was Merkel's insane and incompetent welcome of millions of migrants to Germany and Europe and the massive crime wave that followed.
After getting a residence permit from Germany or some other EU country those millions are entitled to move to UK under current EU freedom of movement rules.
Third reason was Romanian and Bulgarian gypsies moving in masses to UK to get the generous welfare. Fourth reason was massive low wage immigration to UK from Poland and many other eastern European countries and this migration had the effect of lowering UK wages and keeping wages low in UK so the working man was robbed through EU policies to the benefit of the owning class and businesses while the millions of eastern Europeans swamped UK healthcare, UK daycares, UK schools etc.
Some designs just don't work well. There's a reason 28 cylinder engines with arbitrary misfire and bearing seizure don't exist. The EU is such a political engine.
Most Brexit advocates would consider that a failure if it came to pass. This outcome is not just a pipe dream. What if Brexit goes through, but then the Government collapses, people change their minds and soon enough the new Prime Minister is knocking on the door in Brussels again looking to come back in?
That would give Britain less than a decade out in the cold — much less than a decade if we include the presumed transition period after That's why our new email newsletter will deliver a mobile-friendly snapshot of inews.
This will feature the stories you need to know, as well as a curated selection of the best reads from across the site. Of course, you can easily opt out at any time, but we're confident that you won't.
News The Essential Daily Briefing. Check the URL for errors or try our searching inews.
The prominent Brexit campaigner is being investigated by the National Crime Agency but bettors aren't convinced that it'll affect the UK's exit from the EU n As the chancellor prepares to deliver his last budget before Brexit, Max Liu assesses the latest odds on Britain's departure from the European Union With hundreds of thousands of Remainers on the march and Brexiteers plotting against Theresa May, it's been another eventful week in UK politics.
Around , people are expected to attend Saturday's People's Vote march, to demand a referendum on the final Brexit deal, but the odds suggest they're un With Theresa May's Brexit strategy and leadership of her party under constant fire, could this be the week where it becomes unsustainable?
Theresa May is beginning one of the biggest weeks of her premiership. You'd expect her ministers and coalition partners to be right behind her, wouldn't you?
As the SNP conference begins, polling shows Scots would choose independence in the event of a no deal Brexit. Elsewhere, what Theresa and Jose have in common Betfair punters have reacted positively to Theresa May's speech at the Conservative Party Conference, with her odds to step down as leader this year dancing The Conservatives are gathering in Birmingham for their conference and the wolves are circling Theresa May, says Max Liu as he assesses the latest UK politic Remainers found fresh hope at the Labour conference this week but will it amount to anything?
Paul Krishnamurty is sceptical that Brexit can be stopped befor Mixed messages from the Government make it difficult to guess what happens next — but we can consult the bookies, many of whom have been offering odds on various Brexit scenarios.
That would mean some kind of unforeseen occurrence — Parliament pulling the brake, or a second referendum, or a delay in the exit process.
Most Brexit advocates would consider that a failure if it came to pass. This outcome is not just a pipe dream. What if Brexit goes through, but then the Government collapses, people change their minds and soon enough the new Prime Minister is knocking on the door in Brussels again looking to come back in?
That would give Britain less than a decade out in the cold — much less than a decade if we include the presumed transition period after That's why our new email newsletter will deliver a mobile-friendly snapshot of inews.
This will feature the stories you need to know, as well as a curated selection of the best reads from across the site. Of course, you can easily opt out at any time, but we're confident that you won't.
The speculation about her future will now intensify. If this has more traction with the grass roots than whatever May will suggest, Davis could emerge as the next Tory leader.
But would Davis' plan include an Irish backstop? Ireland is one of the issues that divides the eurosceptics. Some could not care less about Northern Ireland and are willing to accept an intra-UK customs border.
But we find it hard to believe that this could command a majority position in the UK parliament as a whole. The complications of UK politics - not well understood on the continent - and the technical complications of Brexit, are what drives us to the conclusion that the risk of a no-deal Brexit has risen in Salzburg.
What will May do? For starters, the British government will now visibly increase preparations for a no-deal Brexit.
May herself will stick to Chequers, as one of her cabinet ministers indicated this morning. She will accept a few technical compromises here and there, and let the negotiations drag out to the very end.
Unless the conservatives replace her this autumn, she will confront the EU with a choice of Chequers versus no-deal. The UK sides believes, rightly in our view, that the EU is underestimating the probability of a no-deal Brexit.
Short-term there will be a bit of pain. Long-term, getting the hell out of a miserable marriage to 27 Nannycrats who all have to agree with everything or nothing gets done has to be a good thing.
The EU is an exit sandwich. First by the UK. Second by an eastern European country like Poland or Hungary. A long comment was just eaten by the Maven comment system They have completely misjudged the Brexit situation just like they completely misjudged the rush of migrants in UK should have a NO deal Brexit and refuse to pay the about 50 billion Euros EU claims they need to pay and instead UK needs to tell German taxpayers and French taxpayers to pay that 50 billion and Merkel and Macron will become even more unpopular than they already are.
UK can smooth the customs by giving factories and large companies their own custom officials and having local custom officials for middle-sized companies that go through all customs issues for middle-sized companies in certain city.
Small companies can quickly do their customs at the border since no ques with the above optimized customs plan. There can be open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland with large companies and factories also doing customs through their dedicated customs officials and middle-sized companies doing customs with the customs officials in their city.
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